
College of Graduate
Studies
Master of Business
Administration Department
17600 Pacific Highway (Hwy. 43)
P.O. Box 261
Marylhurst, OR 97036-0261
Phone: 503.675.3961
Toll free: 800.634.9982
Syllabus:
MGT 523E
Managerial
Decision Analysis
Online
Fall
2004
MBA Department Chair: Bert Desmond, MBA
Instructor: Michael A. S.
Guth, Ph.D., J.D.
First Class: September 23,
2004
Credits: 3
Prerequisite: N/A
![]()
The ability to achieve successful business results depends
on a sound decision-making process. This course introduces students to
managerial decision theory and analysis. Using a mix of quantitative and
qualitative methods, students will learn how to manage under uncertainty.
Topics include structuring decisions, evaluating alternatives, and making
tradeoffs
LEARNING OUTCOMES
This is a quantitative class. The goal of the course is to
educate the student in the foundational concepts associated with decision
making and give the student the opportunity to practice these methods. Many of
these methods will involve applying fundamental statistical and probability
theory learned in other classes. The student will become an informed decision
maker with the ability to break problems into their component parts, analyze
and diagram, assign probabilities, access risk, and compare alternatives.
Using the simulation tool, students will learn to make
decisions in a team environment where results are measured and business skills
and knowledge are put to the test. Outcomes will include a practical use of
skills, improved group decision making and an enjoyable exercise.
Upon completion of the course, students will be able to:
·
show how business managers make decisions involving
multiple objectives, in particular using the SMART methodology.
·
tackle decision making under uncertainty through use of
probabilities, decision trees, and influence diagrams.
·
apply simulation to decision problems and gain mastery of
the CapSim Capstone software program.
·
revise judgments in light of new information by updating
probabilities, planning for alternative scenarios, and redefining the risks and
uncertainties with a project or investment decision.
·
manage decisions involving groups of individuals demonstrate team building skills through the use of
effective interpersonal skills and listening techniques within a group setting.
·
utilize sound management principles to allocate resources
and negotiate solution to problems.
·
use prospect theory, decision framing, cognitive inertia,
and other decision science techniques to elicit and predict responses to
management directives.
·
describe the various functions
within an organization, the major decisions that are made within each of these
functional areas, and integrate
decision making across functional disciplines.
·
effectively utilize data as a
source of management information.
·
develop an ethical and moral
framework in which to evaluate managerial decisions.
Class Routine
This course will include three
types of assignments:
Class Participation / Discussion Board
Each week discussion topics
will be posted and each learner will be expected to post an average of three
substantive comments. You will need to
read the weekly assignments in order to post intelligent messages to the
discussion board. Twenty percent of
your grade will come from discussion board participation.
Simulation
Teams
will be created and practice rounds will be completed during the first two
sessions. Each team will set strategy, measurements and weekly tactics to
achieve goals. Each week each team will submit an Annual Report discussing
progress toward goals in total and activity in each functional area. At the end
of the term, teams will present a PowerPoint slide show discussing their
experience and results. It is expected that these reports will include
demonstrations of the use of the decision methods learned in the class. Twenty percent of your grade will come from
performance on the simulation.
Text Readings and Homework
There are
weekly reading assignments from the Goodwin & Wright and Bazerman
textbooks. A mid term and final paper will be assigned in conjunction with
these readings. These two exams will
account for sixty percent of your grade.
Current events
Students are encouraged to discuss, and comment in the
classroom any business, economic, political, financial event that relates to
decision making. Depending on the midterm grades, extra credit may be offered
for written current events work.
Required Textbooks
Paul Goodwin and George
Wright , Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, Third Edition
ISBN: 0-470-86108-8,
Paperback 492 pages (John Wiley & Sons, December 2003).
Max H. Bazerman, Judgment
in Managerial Decision Making, 5th Edition, ISBN 0-471-39887-X,
Paperback
(John Wiley & Sons, 2001).
Foundation® Business
Simulation Team Member Guide (TMG). (?
I don’t know whether Marylhurst has bought these for students or if they have
to purchase them separately??????????????)
Other
suggested readings
Competitive Strategy: Techniques
For Analyzing Industries and Competitors (highly recommended)
Michael E. Porter, New York: The Free Press, ISBN: 0684841487; 2000
(revised edition).
The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing:
Violate Them At Your Own Risk!, (highly recommended)
Al Ries and Jack Trout, Harper Business; ISBN: 0887306667; 1 Pbk Ed
edition (May 1994)
by Randy Komisar (Paperback -
September 2001) Harvard Business School Pr; ISBN: 1578516447; (September 2001)
Inside The Tornado: Marketing
Strategies From Silicon Valley’s Cutting Edge,
Geoffrey A. Moore, New York: Harper Business, HarperCollins (paper);
ISBN: 0887308244; Reprint edition (August 1999)
Required Courseware
This class will use software
produced by Management Simulations, Inc. (MSI), which has a web page at http://www.capsim.com. The software vendor has two
products: Foundation® and
Capstone®. We will be using
the Foundation® program, which is intended to be simpler and more
user friendly than the other product.
Students will log into the site from the capsim.com homepage using their
last names as the username and a password provided by Marylhurst University.
This Foundation® simulation examines the design
and execution of a firm’s competitive strategy. Students aree organized into management
teams to run the CapSim simulation. Each team directs a manufacturing company
in the electronic sensors industry over six rounds. Teams design their firm’s
competitive strategy and execute that strategy through operating decisions in
product development, production, research and development, pricing, marketing,
human resource management, financial management, and quality initiatives. The simulation
is Internet-based; teams upload their decisions according to a fixed schedule,
and decisions interact. The teams compete!
Teams are directed to maximize their stock price. The successful student
understands business strategy, cause – effect relationships within a firm, and
strategy- specific decision- making.
I will run the simulation by noon on the day after decisions are up-loaded.
Students download the results, and these results ( Capstone®
Courier) are the starting conditions for the next round. Papers must be
professionally presented.
Team Captains (Company CEO) are obligated to report
if any employees are not making full contributions. Students can be “fired” and
will earn a low grade for the course. The team with the highest stock price at
the end of round #8 is the winner!
This business simulation consists
of competing teams that run hypothetical companies making electronic sensors.
All teams start with identical positions and compete over several periods of
decision rounds, where each round is the equivalent of one year. The simulation
is cross-functional and integrates all major elements of the business
decision-making process. Each team will have the opportunity to set corporate
strategies and apply strategic concepts and techniques within a practical
decision-making framework. The effectiveness of the strategy and its
implementation will determine the successful competition with the other teams.
Each student will receive a Team Member Guide, which describes the industry in
detail. The Guide contains all the information necessary to make decisions for
the companies. Teams will be formed the first session of class. Each team will
prepare a report containing the vision statement, mission statement, management
model, objectives and business strategy it plans to use to obtain the
objectives. This report is limited to two pages of text (you may attach as many
graphs and tables as necessary). This report is due at the end of Week 2. Also, beginning with Week 3, teams will
submit a brief description of the firm’s decisions for each round of the
simulation.
Case
Study Downloads
In
addition to its own bookstore, Marylhurst University’s MBA program uses an
independent company called Study.Net to distribute case study materials to
students in either electronic or hard copy formats. Cases and articles may be
downloaded from Study.Net.
To get
started, go to http://www.study.net;
register as a student; and then follow the instructions to access the materials
for this course, which are listed under Marylhurst University. Detailed
instructions are provided below:
1.
To use Study.Net, you must use either Internet Explorer or
Netscape Communicator (version 4.0 or higher). If you are using an older
version of either browser, you will need to upgrade your browser. A link to do
this is provided on the Study.Net home page.
2.
If this is your first time using Study.Net you must first
register as a student. To do this,
click on the Student Registration button located on the left-hand side of the
Study.Net home page; then follow the instructions. When prompted for a school, please select Marylhurst
University. If you have registered with
Study.Net previously, there is no need to repeat this step. Just login and click on the “New Courses”
button on the left hand side of your screen.
3.
After registering as a student user, you can immediately
access your course materials by selecting MGT 519E and completing the purchase
process for the “NextStage” case. You will need a credit card (Visa, MC,
American Express) to complete this process.
All transactions are completed over secure servers using Verisign.
4.
To view the cases and articles used in this course, you
will need Adobe Acrobat Reader to view the .pdf files. If you don’t already have this application
or would like to upgrade for free, there is a link to the Adobe download site
on the Study.Net home page. Please use
version 4.0 or higher (preferably version 5.0) of Adobe Acrobat Reader.
5.
At the time of material purchase, you have the option of
also purchasing a printed copy of the online cases and articles, called a
TextPak. This purchase is optional and will result in an additional
charge. TextPaks are shipped directly
to your home or mailing address (usually delivered in 3-4 days). They are sent
via Priority Mail for an additional fee.
6.
To access a course at any time, login with your selected
e-mail login and password; click on the My Courses button; highlight your
selected course name; and finally click on the View button to view that
particular course. To access the course materials, click on the Materials link
on the left hand side of the course page.
7.
Please make sure your browser security settings allow the
use of “cookies”. Study.Net uses cookies to ensure the continuity of any online
session.
If you have any technical questions regarding the use of
Study.Net to access, view, or print your course materials, please send an email
to customerservice@study.net
or call Jay McGoodwin at (954) 294-0412.
While Marylhurst (or its instructors) cannot help you with customer
service questions, we are interested in your feedback about the service.
Your final grade will be
determined using the point schedule below.
|
Grade |
Points |
Grade |
Points |
|
A |
950 to
1000 |
C+ |
775 to
799 |
|
A- |
900 to
949 |
C |
725 to
774 |
|
B+ |
875 to
899 |
C- |
700 to
724 |
|
B |
825 to
874 |
D |
600 to
699 |
|
B- |
800 to
824 |
F |
0 to
599 |
Your grade and total points will be determined by the
following components:
|
Component |
Possible Points |
|
Weekly
Bulletin Board Participation (10 weeks x 20 points per week). |
200 |
|
Midterm Exam |
300 |
|
Capsim
Exercise |
200 |
|
Final Exam |
300 |
|
Possible Extra Credit
Assignment Depending on Midterm Grades |
100 |
Note: Any updates to the above will be posted online.
Late assignments
Assignments are late if not submitted on their due date.
If the work is submitted online, then the due date is by midnight PT.
Individual or teamwork that is submitted within one week of the due date may
automatically be reduced by one letter grade (e.g., from A- to B-). Work will not be accepted after seven days
past due except with my written approval. If you have any questions about an
assignment or grading criteria, ask beforehand.
To repeat: Any on-campus meetings are purely
optional.
Grading
This course is designed to achieve certain learning
outcomes associated with a graduate education. Performance assessment depends
upon the accomplishment of these outcomes. In other words, grades are not
“given” but “earned.” Students and teams are graded on
demonstration of knowledge or competence rather than for effort alone. Students
are expected to read the syllabus, submit or present all assignments on time,
and actively participate in each weekly online class.
Unless otherwise stated online, written assignments,
including the final business plan, will be graded based on: 50% content and
organization; and 50% style and presentation (real-world applicability).
Remember: A =
Excellent performance.
B = Above
average performance.
C =
Average performance.
COURSE SCHEDULE
Please see Discussion postings for updates,
corrections, and weekly topics. The following assignments are in addition to
weekly discussion topics posted online.
|
Due |
Topic |
Assignments Due (End of
Week) |
Readings |
|
|