MARYLHURST UNIVERSITY

College of Graduate Studies

Master of Business Administration Department

17600 Pacific Highway (Hwy. 43)

P.O. Box 261

Marylhurst, OR 97036-0261

Phone: 503.675.3961

Toll free: 800.634.9982

www.marylhurst.edu

Syllabus:

MGT 523E

Managerial Decision Analysis

Online

Fall 2004

MBA Department Chair: Bert Desmond, MBA

Instructor: Michael A. S. Guth, Ph.D., J.D.

First Class: September 23, 2004

Credits: 3

Prerequisite: N/A

COURSE DESCRIPTION

The ability to achieve successful business results depends on a sound decision-making process. This course introduces students to managerial decision theory and analysis. Using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, students will learn how to manage under uncertainty. Topics include structuring decisions, evaluating alternatives, and making tradeoffs

LEARNING OUTCOMES

This is a quantitative class. The goal of the course is to educate the student in the foundational concepts associated with decision making and give the student the opportunity to practice these methods. Many of these methods will involve applying fundamental statistical and probability theory learned in other classes. The student will become an informed decision maker with the ability to break problems into their component parts, analyze and diagram, assign probabilities, access risk, and compare alternatives.

Using the simulation tool, students will learn to make decisions in a team environment where results are measured and business skills and knowledge are put to the test. Outcomes will include a practical use of skills, improved group decision making and an enjoyable exercise.

Upon completion of the course, students will be able to:

· show how business managers make decisions involving multiple objectives, in particular using the SMART methodology.

· tackle decision making under uncertainty through use of probabilities, decision trees, and influence diagrams.

· apply simulation to decision problems and gain mastery of the CapSim Capstone software program.

· revise judgments in light of new information by updating probabilities, planning for alternative scenarios, and redefining the risks and uncertainties with a project or investment decision.

· manage decisions involving groups of individuals demonstrate team building skills through the use of effective interpersonal skills and listening techniques within a group setting.

· utilize sound management principles to allocate resources and negotiate solution to problems.

· use prospect theory, decision framing, cognitive inertia, and other decision science techniques to elicit and predict responses to management directives.

· describe the various functions within an organization, the major decisions that are made within each of these functional areas, and integrate decision making across functional disciplines.

· effectively utilize data as a source of management information.

· develop an ethical and moral framework in which to evaluate managerial decisions.

Class Routine

This course will include three types of assignments:

Class Participation / Discussion Board

Each week discussion topics will be posted and each learner will be expected to post an average of three substantive comments. You will need to read the weekly assignments in order to post intelligent messages to the discussion board. Twenty percent of your grade will come from discussion board participation.

Simulation

Teams will be created and practice rounds will be completed during the first two sessions. Each team will set strategy, measurements and weekly tactics to achieve goals. Each week each team will submit an Annual Report discussing progress toward goals in total and activity in each functional area. At the end of the term, teams will present a PowerPoint slide show discussing their experience and results. It is expected that these reports will include demonstrations of the use of the decision methods learned in the class. Twenty percent of your grade will come from performance on the simulation.

Text Readings and Homework

There are weekly reading assignments from the Goodwin & Wright and Bazerman textbooks. A mid term and final paper will be assigned in conjunction with these readings. These two exams will account for sixty percent of your grade.

Current events

Students are encouraged to discuss, and comment in the classroom any business, economic, political, financial event that relates to decision making. Depending on the midterm grades, extra credit may be offered for written current events work.

Materials

Required Textbooks

Paul Goodwin and George Wright , Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, Third Edition

ISBN: 0-470-86108-8, Paperback 492 pages (John Wiley & Sons, December 2003).

Max H. Bazerman, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, 5^th Edition, ISBN 0-471-39887-X, Paperback

(John Wiley & Sons, 2001).

Foundation^® Business Simulation Team Member Guide (TMG). (? I don’t know whether Marylhurst has bought these for students or if they have to purchase them separately??????????????)

Other suggested readings

Competitive Strategy: Techniques For Analyzing Industries and Competitors (highly recommended)

Michael E. Porter, New York: The Free Press, ISBN: 0684841487; 2000 (revised edition).

The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing: Violate Them At Your Own Risk!, (highly recommended)

Al Ries and Jack Trout, Harper Business; ISBN: 0887306667; 1 Pbk Ed edition (May 1994)

The Monk and the Riddle: The Art of Creating a Life While Making a Living (recommended)

by Randy Komisar (Paperback - September 2001) Harvard Business School Pr; ISBN: 1578516447; (September 2001)

Inside The Tornado: Marketing Strategies From Silicon Valley’s Cutting Edge,

Geoffrey A. Moore, New York: Harper Business, HarperCollins (paper); ISBN: 0887308244; Reprint edition (August 1999)

Required Courseware

This class will use software produced by Management Simulations, Inc. (MSI), which has a web page at http://www.capsim.com. The software vendor has two products: Foundation^® and Capstone^®. We will be using the Foundation^® program, which is intended to be simpler and more user friendly than the other product. Students will log into the site from the capsim.com homepage using their last names as the username and a password provided by Marylhurst University.

This Foundation^® simulation examines the design and execution of a firm’s competitive strategy. Students aree organized into management teams to run the CapSim simulation. Each team directs a manufacturing company in the electronic sensors industry over six rounds. Teams design their firm’s competitive strategy and execute that strategy through operating decisions in product development, production, research and development, pricing, marketing, human resource management, financial management, and quality initiatives. The simulation is Internet-based; teams upload their decisions according to a fixed schedule, and decisions interact. The teams compete! Teams are directed to maximize their stock price. The successful student understands business strategy, cause – effect relationships within a firm, and strategy- specific decision- making.

I will run the simulation by noon on the day after decisions are up-loaded. Students download the results, and these results ( Capstone^® Courier) are the starting conditions for the next round. Papers must be professionally presented.

Team Captains (Company CEO) are obligated to report if any employees are not making full contributions. Students can be “fired” and will earn a low grade for the course. The team with the highest stock price at the end of round #8 is the winner!

This business simulation consists of competing teams that run hypothetical companies making electronic sensors. All teams start with identical positions and compete over several periods of decision rounds, where each round is the equivalent of one year. The simulation is cross-functional and integrates all major elements of the business decision-making process. Each team will have the opportunity to set corporate strategies and apply strategic concepts and techniques within a practical decision-making framework. The effectiveness of the strategy and its implementation will determine the successful competition with the other teams. Each student will receive a Team Member Guide, which describes the industry in detail. The Guide contains all the information necessary to make decisions for the companies. Teams will be formed the first session of class. Each team will prepare a report containing the vision statement, mission statement, management model, objectives and business strategy it plans to use to obtain the objectives. This report is limited to two pages of text (you may attach as many graphs and tables as necessary). This report is due at the end of Week 2. Also, beginning with Week 3, teams will submit a brief description of the firm’s decisions for each round of the simulation.

Assessment and evaluation

Your final grade will be determined using the point schedule below.

Grade	Points	Grade	Points
A	950 to 1000	C+	775 to 799
A-	900 to 949	C	725 to 774
B+	875 to 899	C-	700 to 724
B	825 to 874	D	600 to 699
B-	800 to 824	F	0 to 599

Your grade and total points will be determined by the following components:

Component	Possible Points
Weekly Bulletin Board Participation (10 weeks x 20 points per week). · Excellent bulletin board participation – student leads the class with ongoing postings supported by research and/or theory, relevant ideas, links/attached articles, clear/concise writing in response to weekly topics, and assistance to fellow students and me; at least 1 post and two replies (3 total) per week (up to 200 pts.) · Active bulletin board participation – student uses some researched materials/sources to support arguments; some postings may need improved analysis or writing (up to 150 pts.) · Regular participation but lacks research, relevancy, or writing quality/quantity (up to 130 pts.) · Irregular and passive participation; low quantity and quality (up to 80 pts.) · Minimal or no participation; does not meet minimum standards (up to 50 pts.) · Further additions or deductions based on a team survey at end of class (up to 25 points) and based on my discretion. Details to be posted online. Weekly grading: 0 (absent), 10 (average), 20 (excellent)	200
Midterm Exam	300
Capsim Exercise	200
Final Exam	300
Possible Extra Credit Assignment Depending on Midterm Grades	100

Note: Any updates to the above will be posted online.

Late assignments

Assignments are late if not submitted on their due date. If the work is submitted online, then the due date is by midnight PT. Individual or teamwork that is submitted within one week of the due date may automatically be reduced by one letter grade (e.g., from A- to B-). Work will not be accepted after seven days past due except with my written approval. If you have any questions about an assignment or grading criteria, ask beforehand.

Attendance

Class attendance via WebCT is mandatory. Any on-campus or face-to-face meetings are purely optional. Students who miss an online class will lose the learning experience and benefits resulting from the class. If you miss a class and cannot post for any reason (technical, work, health, or otherwise), you may will have to complete a make-up assignment.

To repeat: Any on-campus meetings are purely optional.

Grading

This course is designed to achieve certain learning outcomes associated with a graduate education. Performance assessment depends upon the accomplishment of these outcomes. In other words, grades are not “given” but “earned.” Students and teams are graded on demonstration of knowledge or competence rather than for effort alone. Students are expected to read the syllabus, submit or present all assignments on time, and actively participate in each weekly online class.

Unless otherwise stated online, written assignments, including the final business plan, will be graded based on: 50% content and organization; and 50% style and presentation (real-world applicability).

Remember: A = Excellent performance.

B = Above average performance.

C = Average performance.

COURSE SCHEDULE

Please see Discussion postings for updates, corrections, and weekly topics. The following assignments are in addition to weekly discussion topics posted online.

Due	Topic	Assignments Due (End of Week)	Readings
W1	Introduction	Skills assessment and team formation	Goodwin & Wright, Ch. 1-2; Bazerman Ch. 1
W2	Decisions Involving Multiple Objectives	Teams: Foundation Orientation, Propose metric for evaluating learner performance on the simulation tool.	Goodwin and Wright Ch. 2-3 And Bazerman Ch. 2
W3	Decision Making Under Uncertainty	Teams: Foundation Practice Round 1	Goodwin and Wright Ch 4-5 And Bazerman Ch. 3
W4	Structuring Decision Problems	Teams: Foundation Practice Round 2	Goodwin and Wright Ch. 6 And Bazerman Chapter 4
W5	Applying Simulation to Decision Problems	Midterm Exam covering reading from first 4 weeks.	Goodwin and Wright Ch. 7 and Bazerman Chapter 5
W6	Revising Judgments	Teams: Foundation Practice Round 3	Goodwin and Wright Ch. 8 And Bazerman Chapter 6
W7	Biases in Probability Assessment	Teams: Foundation Practice Round 4	Goodwin and Wright Ch. 9-10 And Bazerman Chapter 7
W8	Structured Risk and Uncertainty	Teams: Foundation Actual Round 1	Goodwin and Wright Ch. 11 And Bazerman Chapter 8
W9	Group Decision Making	Teams: Foundation Actual Round 2	Goodwin and Wright Ch. 12-13 And Bazerman Chapter 9
W10	Decision Framing and Review	Final Exam due at the end of the week. Optional: A third round using Foundation.	Goodwin and Wright Ch. 14 and Bazerman Chapter 10

Communication and Confidentiality

All students are expected to have access to e-mail and appropriate Internet technology. Our communication is carried out electronically, and I will make every effort to respond to e-mail messages within 48 hours. Students are expected to respond within a similar timeframe.

Except where posted, your writing style should be geared for the business reader and investor. If you have difficulties with your written communications skills, please visit the Marylhurst Writing Center prior to submitting your assignments (writing@marylhurst.edu).

All individual assignments are meant to represent each student’s own work and will be graded individually. Participation is considered an individual assignment. Group projects and assignments should represent equal efforts by all group members and one grade will be given for the group. However, you will be invited to comment on the efforts of each member on your team. This will be submitted confidentially to me at the end of the course, and may impact your participation grade (up or down).

Sharing of professional experiences in the context of analyzing relevant course materials is highly encouraged. However, it is against the policy of Marylhurst University for students or faculty members to share information in class about present or past employers that would be considered proprietary or confidential.

E-mail and bulletin board

The course Website provides two basic communication tools: private e-mail and the Discussion bulletin board. Students should see the bulletin board as a virtual classroom, where clear thinking and writing are emphasized. Private e-mail should be restricted to private communication regarding personal matters or questions. Each student is expected to be prepared and contribute to the weekly class discussion. The online postings constitute the primary component of your final class participation grade, and you are expected to post and reply to weekly topics.

about the Instructor

Michael A. S. Guth, Ph.D., J.D., is a Managing Director at Risk Management Consulting, based in Oak Ridge, TN. His clients have included Tennessee Valley Authority, PG&E Energy Trading, Oklahoma Gas & Electric Energy Trading, General Electric Power Systems, and Progress Energy. He received his B.A. (economics) from Rice University, his M.S. (social science) from Caltech, and his Ph.D. (economics) from the Univ. of Tennessee, where he also received his law degree. He currently teaches on-line courses at the MBA level in Managerial Economics (focusing on employee and managerial incentives), Decision Analysis for Managers, and at the undergraduate level in Health Care Economics, Health Care Finance, Legal Journalism, and Comparative Politics. A complete list of more than twenty courses he has taught is shown at his web site, http://michaelguth.com/economist.htm He also practices law with an emphasis on health care law. To see examples of his law review articles, as well as course outlines and law-related articles by some of his former students, please go to http://michaelguth.com . He is currently researching ways to offer health care services more efficiently and at lower cost to consumers, as well as new and forthcoming treatments for osteoporosis, hyperlipidemia, and Alzheimer's disease.

Availability

Office Hours: Monday – Wednesday, 10 AM – noon PM, Thursday – Friday 7 PM – 8 PM (Eastern time). E-mail Address: mike @ michaelguth.com E-mail is the preferred method of contact. Please use direct e-mail contact to my juno account, rather than sending an e-mail message through the class WebCT page. My fax number is available upon request.

Marylhurst University Writing Standards

Writing is one of the central activities through which students learn, communicate, and demonstrate learning. Academic writing differs from other forms of writing in that it usually:

· Is appropriately narrow in focus

· Presents an argument based on sound critical thinking

· Draws upon and properly acknowledges the work of others, and

· Presents new understanding in an organized fashion.

Unless otherwise indicated by the faculty member, all writing in Marylhurst University classes, including electronic bulletin boards, personal essays, and formal research papers, will be evaluated on the basis of Standard American English, quality, creativity, effectiveness of argumentation and reasoning, accuracy of information, and selection and use of appropriate supporting material.

Any information not original to the student must be cited in a recognized format—for example, APA, MLA, or Chicago—appropriate to the academic discipline. Use of information or material from outside sources without proper citation is plagiarism and grounds for disciplinary action, see “Academic Honesty” in the Marylhurst University Catalog or Student Handbook and “Conduct Code” in the Student Handbook for specific information.

Student Rights and Responsibilities

All members of the University community are expected to act in ways that foster the University’s primary function of education. Conduct that interferes with this educational responsibility will be dealt with directly.

Please refer to the Marylhurst University Student Handbook for specific information, policies, and procedures about student rights and responsibilities or contact the office of the Vice President for Academic Administration at 503.699.6316.

Student Handbook available online at: http://www.marylhurst.edu/student/resources/studenthandbook.html

Marylhurst University Catalog available online at:

http://www.marylhurst.edu/student/catalog-fm.html

INDIVIDUALS WITH A DISABILITY

If you have a specific disability that qualifies you for academic adjustments and/or auxiliary aids, please contact the Services Coordinator for Students with Disabilities at 503.636.8141, ext. 3344, or 800.634.9982, ext. 3344, or TTY 503.699.6301, or email adaservices@marylhurst.edu.

MARYLHURST UNIVERSITY

COURSE DESCRIPTION

Materials

The Monk and the Riddle: The Art of Creating a Life While Making a Living (recommended)

Other Research and Resource Links

Assessment and evaluation

Attendance

Decision Framing and Review

MICHAEL A. S. GUTH, Ph.D., J.D.
Professor of Financial Economics and Law
send e-mail
(E-mail is quickest method of contact).
  116 Oklahoma Ave.
  Oak Ridge, TN
  37830-8604
  Phone: (865) 483-8309

MARYLHURST UNIVERSITY

COURSE DESCRIPTION

Materials

The Monk and the Riddle: The Art of Creating a Life While Making a Living (recommended)

Other Research and Resource Links

Assessment and evaluation

Attendance

Decision Framing and Review

MICHAEL A. S. GUTH, Ph.D., J.D. Professor of Financial Economics and Law send e-mail (E-mail is quickest method of contact). 116 Oklahoma Ave. Oak Ridge, TN 37830-8604 Phone: (865) 483-8309

MICHAEL A. S. GUTH, Ph.D., J.D.
Professor of Financial Economics and Law
send e-mail
(E-mail is quickest method of contact).
116 Oklahoma Ave.
Oak Ridge, TN
37830-8604
Phone: (865) 483-8309